Isaac Asimov - The Skeptical Inquirer, Vol. 14 No. 1, Fall 1989
pg.. 35-44
I RECEIVED a letter the other day. It was handwritten in crabbed penmanship so that it was very difficult to read. Nevertheless, I tried to make it out just in case it might prove to be important. In the first sentence, the writer told me he was majoring in English literature, but felt he needed to teach me science. (I sighed a bit, for I knew very few English Lit majors who are equipped to teach me science, but I am very aware of the vast state of my ignorance and I am prepared to learn as much as I can from anyone, so I read on.)
It seemed that in one of my innumerable essays, I had expressed a certain gladness at living in a century in which we finally got the basis of the universe straight.
I didn't go into detail in the matter, but what I meant was that we now know the basic rules governing the universe, together with the gravitational interrelationships of its gross components, as shown in the theory of relativity worked out between 1905 and 1916. We also know the basic rules governing the subatomic particles and their interrelationships, since these are very neatly described by the quantum theory worked out between 1900 and 1930. What's more, we have found that the galaxies and clusters of galaxies are the basic units of the physical universe, as discovered between 1920 and 1930.
These are all twentieth-century discoveries, you see.
The young specialist in English Lit, having quoted me, went on to lecture me severely on the fact that in every century people have thought they understood the universe at last, and in every century they were proved to be wrong. It follows that the one thing we can say about our modern "knowledge" is that it is wrong. The young man then quoted with approval what Socrates had said on learning that the Delphic oracle had proclaimed him the wisest man in Greece. "If I am the wisest man," said Socrates, "it is because I alone know that I know nothing." the implication was that I was very foolish because I was under the impression I knew a great deal.
My answer to him was, "John, when people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together."
The basic trouble, you see, is that people think that "right" and "wrong" are absolute; that everything that isn't perfectly and completely right is totally and equally wrong.
However, I don't think that's so. It seems to me that right and wrong are fuzzy concepts, and I will devote this essay to an explanation of why I think so.
...When my friend the English literature expert tells me that in every century scientists think they have worked out the universe and are always wrong, what I want to know is how wrong are they? Are they always wrong to the same degree? Let's take an example.
In the early days of civilization, the general feeling was that the earth was flat. This was not because people were stupid, or because they were intent on believing silly things. They felt it was flat on the basis of sound evidence. It was not just a matter of "That's how it looks," because the earth does not look flat. It looks chaotically bumpy, with hills, valleys, ravines, cliffs, and so on.
Of course there are plains where, over limited areas, the earth's surface does look fairly flat. One of those plains is in the Tigris-Euphrates area, where the first historical civilization (one with writing) developed, that of the Sumerians.
Perhaps it was the appearance of the plain that persuaded the clever Sumerians to accept the generalization that the earth was flat; that if you somehow evened out all the elevations and depressions, you would be left with flatness. Contributing to the notion may have been the fact that stretches of water (ponds and lakes) looked pretty flat on quiet days.
Another way of looking at it is to ask what is the "curvature" of the earth's surface Over a considerable length, how much does the surface deviate (on the average) from perfect flatness. The flat-earth theory would make it seem that the surface doesn't deviate from flatness at all, that its curvature is 0 to the mile.
Nowadays, of course, we are taught that the flat-earth theory is wrong; that it is all wrong, terribly wrong, absolutely. But it isn't. The curvature of the earth is nearly 0 per mile, so that although the flat-earth theory is wrong, it happens to be nearly right. That's why the theory lasted so long.
There were reasons, to be sure, to find the flat-earth theory unsatisfactory and, about 350 B.C., the Greek philosopher Aristotle summarized them. First, certain stars disappeared beyond the Southern Hemisphere as one traveled north, and beyond the Northern Hemisphere as one traveled south. Second, the earth's shadow on the moon during a lunar eclipse was always the arc of a circle. Third, here on the earth itself, ships disappeared beyond the horizon hull-first in whatever direction they were traveling.
All three observations could not be reasonably explained if the earth's surface were flat, but could be explained by assuming the earth to be a sphere.
What's more, Aristotle believed that all solid matter tended to move toward a common center, and if solid matter did this, it would end up as a sphere. A given volume of matter is, on the average, closer to a common center if it is a sphere than if it is any other shape whatever.
About a century after Aristotle, the Greek philosopher Eratosthenes noted that the sun cast a shadow of different lengths at different latitudes (all the shadows would be the same length if the earth's surface were flat). From the difference in shadow length, he calculated the size of the earthly sphere and it turned out to be 25,000 miles in circumference.
The curvature of such a sphere is about 0.000126 per mile, a quantity very close to 0 per mile, as you can see, and one not easily measured by the techniques at the disposal of the ancients. The tiny difference between 0 and 0.000126 accounts for the fact that it took so long to pass from the flat earth to the spherical earth.
Mind you, even a tiny difference, such as that between 0 and 0.000126, can be extremely important. That difference mounts up. The earth cannot be mapped over large areas with any accuracy at all if the difference isn't taken into account and if the earth isn't considered a sphere rather than a flat surface. Long ocean voyages can't be undertaken with any reasonable way of locating one's own position in the ocean unless the earth is considered spherical rather than flat.
Furthermore, the flat earth presupposes the possibility of an infinite earth, or of the existence of an "end" to the surface. The spherical earth, however, postulates an earth that is both endless and yet finite, and it is the latter postulate that is consistent with all later findings.
So, although the flat-earth theory is only slightly wrong and is a credit to its inventors, all things considered, it is wrong enough to be discarded in favor of the spherical-earth theory.
And yet is the earth a sphere?
No, it is not a sphere; not in the strict mathematical sense. A sphere has certain mathematical properties&emdash;for instance, all diameters (that is, all straight lines that pass from one point on its surface, through the center, to another point on its surface) have the same length.
That, however, is not true of the earth. Various diameters of the earth differ in length.
What gave people the notion the earth wasn't a true sphere? To begin with, the sun and the moon have outlines that are perfect circles within the limits of measurement in the early days of the telescope. This is consistent with the supposition that the sun and the moon are perfectly spherical in shape.
However, when Jupiter and Saturn were observed by the first telescopic observers, it became quickly apparent that the outlines of those planets were not circles, but distinct eclipses. That meant that Jupiter and Saturn were not true spheres.
Isaac Newton, toward the end of the seventeenth century, showed that a massive body would form a sphere under the pull of gravitational forces (exactly as Aristotle had argued), but only if it were not rotating. If it were rotating, a centrifugal effect would be set up that would lift the body's substance against gravity, and this effect would be greater the closer to the equator you progressed. The effect would also be greater the more rapidly a spherical object rotated, and Jupiter and Saturn rotated very rapidly indeed.
The earth rotated much more slowly than Jupiter or Saturn so the effect should be smaller, but it should still be there. Actual measurements of the curvature of the earth were carried out in the eighteenth century and Newton was proved correct.
The earth has an equatorial bulge, in other words. It is flattened at the poles. It is an "oblate spheroid" rather than a sphere. This means that the various diameters of the earth differ in length. The longest diameters are any of those that stretch from one point on the equator to an opposite point on the equator. This "equatorial diameter" is 12,755 kilometers (7,927 miles). The shortest diameter is from the North Pole to the South Pole and this "polar diameter" is 12,711 kilometers (7,900 miles).
The difference between the longest and shortest diameters is 44 kilometers (27 miles), and that means that the "oblateness" of the earth (its departure from true sphericity) is 44/12755, or 0.0034. This amounts to l/3 of 1 percent.
To put it another way, on a flat surface, curvature is 0 per mile everywhere. On the earth's spherical surface, curvature is 0.000126 per mile everywhere (or 8 inches per mile). On the earth's oblate spheroidal surface, the curvature varies from 7.973 inches to the mile to 8.027 inches to the mile.
The correction in going from spherical to oblate spheroidal is much smaller than going from flat to spherical. Therefore, although the notion of the earth as a sphere is wrong, strictly speaking, it is not as wrong as the notion of the earth as flat.
Even the oblate-spheroidal notion of the earth is wrong, strictly speaking. In 1958, when the satellite Vanguard I was put into orbit about the earth, it was able to measure the local gravitational pull of the earth--and therefore its shape--with unprecedented precision. It turned out that the equatorial bulge south of the equator was slightly bulgier than the bulge north of the equator, and that the South Pole sea level was slightly nearer the center of the earth than the North Pole sea level was.
There seemed no other way of describing this than by saying the earth was pear-shaped, and at once many people decided that the earth was nothing like a sphere but was shaped like a Bartlett pear dangling in space. Actually, the pearlike deviation from oblate-spheroid perfect was a matter of yards rather than miles, and the adjustment of curvature was in the millionths of an inch per mile.
In short, my English Lit friend, living in a mental world of absolute rights and wrongs, may be imagining that because all theories are wrong, the earth may be thought spherical now, but cubical next century, and a hollow icosahedron the next, and a doughnut shape the one after.
What actually happens is that once scientists get hold of a good concept they gradually refine and extend it with greater and greater subtlety as their instruments of measurement improve. Theories are not so much wrong as incomplete.
This can be pointed out in many cases other than just the shape of the earth. Even when a new theory seems to represent a revolution, it usually arises out of small refinements. If something more than a small refinement were needed, then the old theory would never have endured.
Copernicus switched from an earth-centered planetary system to a sun-centered one. In doing so, he switched from something that was obvious to something that was apparently ridiculous. However, it was a matter of finding better ways of calculating the motion of the planets in the sky, and eventually the geocentric theory was just left behind. It was precisely because the old theory gave results that were fairly good by the measurement standards of the time that kept it in being so long.
Again, it is because the geological formations of the earth change so slowly and the living things upon it evolve so slowly that it seemed reasonable at first to suppose that there was no change and that the earth and life always existed as they do today. If that were so, it would make no difference whether the earth and life were billions of years old or thousands. Thousands were easier to grasp.
But when careful observation showed that the earth and life were changing at a rate that was very tiny but not zero, then it became clear that the earth and life had to be very old. Modern geology came into being, and so did the notion of biological evolution.
If the rate of change were more rapid, geology and evolution would have reached their modern state in ancient times. It is only because the difference between the rate of change in a static universe and the rate of change in an evolutionary one is that between zero and very nearly zero that the creationists can continue propagating their folly.
Since the refinements in theory grow smaller and smaller, even quite ancient theories must have been sufficiently right to allow advances to be made; advances that were not wiped out by subsequent refinements.
The Greeks introduced the notion of latitude and longitude, for instance, and made reasonable maps of the Mediterranean basin even without taking sphericity into account, and we still use latitude and longitude today.
The Sumerians were probably the first to establish the principle that planetary movements in the sky exhibit regularity and can be predicted, and they proceeded to work out ways of doing so even though they assumed the earth to be the center of the universe. Their measurements have been enormously refined but the principle remains.
Naturally, the theories we now have might be considered wrong in the simplistic sense of my English Lit correspondent, but in a much truer and subtler sense, they need only be considered incomplete.
Copied from: Asimov - The Relativity of Wrong: "The Relativity of Wrong
tirsdag 14. september 2010
søndag 5. september 2010
Lightroom preset: B&W Høy Kontrast
I Adobe Lightroom kan man lagre en kombinasjon av innstillinger i et såkalt presets. Jeg liker å konvertere portretter til svart/hvit med høy kontrast for derigjennom å fremheve modellen og komposisjonen.
Jeg har derfor laget et Lightroom preset, som jeg bruker som utgangspunkt for mine svart/hvit portretter.
Last ned filen mortenprom.com.bw.high.contrast.lrtemplate, og lagre den i din prests mappe. Høyreklikk på "User Presets" i Presets panelet og velg "import". Naviger til filen du lastet ned og velg den, du har nå et bra utgangspunkt for svart/hvit portretter med høy kontrast.
Eksponeringen må normalt justeres etterpå, det kan også være at det må legges inn litt Fill Light, hvis det er detaljer i skyggene som skal vises. Hva som skal justeres i etterkant er helt opp til deg og din personlige smak ;)
Sjekk bildene i full Screen Slideshow.
De fleste av følgende eksempler er tatt med Canon 5D mkII + Canon 70-200mm f/2.8L IS. Men også et par stykker med Canon sitt lille men fine 50mm f/1.4.











Jeg har derfor laget et Lightroom preset, som jeg bruker som utgangspunkt for mine svart/hvit portretter.
Last ned filen mortenprom.com.bw.high.contrast.lrtemplate, og lagre den i din prests mappe. Høyreklikk på "User Presets" i Presets panelet og velg "import". Naviger til filen du lastet ned og velg den, du har nå et bra utgangspunkt for svart/hvit portretter med høy kontrast.
Eksponeringen må normalt justeres etterpå, det kan også være at det må legges inn litt Fill Light, hvis det er detaljer i skyggene som skal vises. Hva som skal justeres i etterkant er helt opp til deg og din personlige smak ;)
Sjekk bildene i full Screen Slideshow.
De fleste av følgende eksempler er tatt med Canon 5D mkII + Canon 70-200mm f/2.8L IS. Men også et par stykker med Canon sitt lille men fine 50mm f/1.4.
torsdag 26. august 2010
Dramatiske stup i kvelden
Rundt Oslo finnes det utrolig mange fine plasser langs fjorden. En av dem er Ingerdstrand som er stappfull av badegjester om sommeren. Ut på sensommeren er det dog kun de mest hardcore gutter som kaster seg i bølgen blå. Denne herlige gjengen møtte jeg i kveld. Jeg fikk lov å ta et par bilder av dem.
Himmelen var helt fantastisk i kveld, perfekt til landskapsbilder, men også til litt dramatiske portretter. Jeg skulle ha hatt blits med, men uten ble det kanskje enda mere rått, døm selv :)
Full Screen Slideshow... a must ;)













Jeg var ikke den eneste med kamera på Ingjerdstrand denne kvelden, takk til Tai Vu for dette foto :)
Himmelen var helt fantastisk i kveld, perfekt til landskapsbilder, men også til litt dramatiske portretter. Jeg skulle ha hatt blits med, men uten ble det kanskje enda mere rått, døm selv :)
Full Screen Slideshow... a must ;)
Jeg var ikke den eneste med kamera på Ingjerdstrand denne kvelden, takk til Tai Vu for dette foto :)
onsdag 11. august 2010
Oslo Grandprix 2010
Jeg var en liten tur innom Oslo Grandprix og fikk sjekket de norske gutta fra Tour de France.
Andy Schleck punkterer... og mister kjedet igjen... kanskje på tide at Saxobank skifter fra SRAM til enten Shimano eller Campagnolo!

Edvald Boasson Hagens lett gjenkjennelige gule sko

Mest imponerende var det kanskje å se Morten Jahr fra Eidsvoll SK som fulgte med i nesten 40 minutter med kun et ben!!!

Thor Hushovd og Lars Petter Nordhaug forsøkte seg, men ble kjørt inn

Andy Schleck satt enkelt med på den vanskelige rundstrekning

... det gjorde Advald Boasson Hagen også...

Hushovd var meget aktiv

Kurt Asle Arvesen var også meget synlig, hyggelig å se etter alle skadene

Men ingen kunne hamle opp med Boasson Hagen som vant til slutt :)
Andy Schleck punkterer... og mister kjedet igjen... kanskje på tide at Saxobank skifter fra SRAM til enten Shimano eller Campagnolo!
Edvald Boasson Hagens lett gjenkjennelige gule sko
Mest imponerende var det kanskje å se Morten Jahr fra Eidsvoll SK som fulgte med i nesten 40 minutter med kun et ben!!!
Thor Hushovd og Lars Petter Nordhaug forsøkte seg, men ble kjørt inn
Andy Schleck satt enkelt med på den vanskelige rundstrekning
... det gjorde Advald Boasson Hagen også...
Hushovd var meget aktiv
Kurt Asle Arvesen var også meget synlig, hyggelig å se etter alle skadene
Men ingen kunne hamle opp med Boasson Hagen som vant til slutt :)
fredag 6. august 2010
Fotografering av rovfugler på 200mm
På Silkeborg Rovfugleshow kan man komme tett på flere forskjellige rovfugler. De strikte danske regler for hold av rovfugler i fangenskap, tillater ikke at rovfuglene vises for publikum i innhegninger. Man kan derfor kun se fuglene når de presenteres av falkoneren under showet som varer en times tid.
Da blir det dessverre vanskelig å få skikkelige nærbilder av de forskjellige fascinerende rovfugler. En unntakelse er en liten prærieugle som falkoneren viser frem i begynnelsen av showet. Sjekk denne søvnige karen, så søt :)

200mm er simpelt hen ikke nok hvis man vil ordentlig tett på :(



Noen ganger er det dog ikke lett å oppføre seg pent, når man er en hund som egentlig jakter på fugler :)





Her i svart/hvit





Da blir det dessverre vanskelig å få skikkelige nærbilder av de forskjellige fascinerende rovfugler. En unntakelse er en liten prærieugle som falkoneren viser frem i begynnelsen av showet. Sjekk denne søvnige karen, så søt :)
Kamerautstyr
Jeg var bevæpnet med et Canon 5D mkII som ikke er optimalt til fotografering av fugler på grunn av full frame sensoren. Et kamera som Canon 7D hadde vært bedre da mitt 70-200mm f/2.8L IS objektiv da hadde hatt en effektiv brennvidde på 110-320mm.200mm er simpelt hen ikke nok hvis man vil ordentlig tett på :(
Havørnen Odin
Men til de store rovfugler som denne hvithodet havørn er det greit, den var så tett på at det ikke var nødvendig å beskjære så mye i etterkant. Odin som havørnen hetter er ikke voksen ennå, den har derfor ikke fått sitt karakteristiske hvite hode ennå :)Hunder og ugler kan godt være venner
På Silkeborg Rovfugleshow har de også en labrador hvalp som skal lære at ugler ikke er noe man jakter på. Den blir derfor trent sammen med uglene. De er begge to glade i mus :)Noen ganger er det dog ikke lett å oppføre seg pent, når man er en hund som egentlig jakter på fugler :)
Harris hauk
Harris hauken er en morsom fugl. Den jager ofte i samarbeide med andre hauker, noe som gjør den til en spektakulær rovfugl på sånne shows. I Silkeborg har de dessverre kun en Harris hauk, sånn at de ikke kunne vise rasens fantastiske jaktteknikkerAmerikanske Tårnfalk
Denne lille Amerikanske Tårnfalk er en morsom liten fugl, den har det med å sette seg i håret på spesielt mørkhårete jenter :)Savanne ugle
Den siste rovfuglen på showet var denne savanne ugle, utrolig flottHer i svart/hvit
Falkoner Flemming Sanggaard
Til sist et par bilder av falkoner Flemming Sanggaard som fremførte et opplysende og morsomt show
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